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Alex Smart Sports- NFL AFC Championship Game - Tests 12-2 86% Run

The Jacksonville Jaguars visit the  New England Patriots  this Sunday in the  NFL AFC Championship  game . Join me as I explain how and why we cash this pro gridiron SIDE ticket and extend a 12-2 86% NFL run! kick off after 3:05 pm et

*This package includes 1 NFL Spread pick

Alex Smart Sports- NFL NFC Championship Game -Tests 12-2 86% Run

The Minnesota Vikings  visit the Philadelphia Eagles  this Sunday in the  NFL NFC Championship  game . Join me as I explain how and why we cash this pro gridiron SIDE ticket and extend a 12-2 86% NFL run! kick off after 6:40  pm et

*This package includes 1 NFL Spread pick

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YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Jan 15, 2018
Rockets vs Clippers
UNDER 228½ -103 Won
$100
Play Type: Premium


The Rockets enter this contest against the LA Clippers playing decently without super star James Harden ( injury). However, the Rockets still don't look like they have the same flow they had with him in the lineup. Yes, their offense remains productive, but I can see chinks in their armour, and I'm betting the Clippers find a way to slow them down a little bit on their own home floor. I know these teams took part in a high scoring 128-118 affair back in late December , that the Rockets won, but with the Clippers learning their lesson, I expect a different type of approach here. With that said,   the  Clippers  know its in their best interest to slow this game down if they want positive results. With LAC HC Rivers starting to look like a much better tactician than he was earlier in coaching career  ,   I'm also  betting Rivers will try to slug it out with Houston in a slower more grinding game, instead going head to head with them,   in a run and gun affair again. This will result in a lower scoring tilt than the linesmakers might expect.

LA CLIPPERS are 8-0 UNDER L/8 in home games after leading their last 2 games by 10+ points at the half dating back to last season with a combined average of 195.4 ppg going on the board. LA CLIPPERS are 14-4 UNDER L/18 in home games versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game with a combined average of 208.5 ppg scored.HOUSTON in their L/28 games in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game have seen a combined  average of 222.9 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (LA CLIPPERS/HOUSTON) - after 2 or more consecutive wins against opponent after 3 or more consecutive wins are 31-5 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for totals bettors.

Play UNDER

Matchup Selection W/L
NHL  |  Jan 15, 2018
Sharks vs Kings
Sharks
+115 at 5Dimes
Won
$115
Play Type: Premium

The San Jose Sharks visit the Los Angeles Kings in afternoon NHL action on Martin Luther King Jr. Day at  the Staples Center. The Sharks are looking for their third consecutive win over the Kings and I'm betting they get it in a building that they have a lot of success in in recent meetings winning 8 of  their L/9 games here. Meanwhile, the Kings are struggling losing 3 straight and 6 of its L/10 games, and are far from being in top form and once again vulnerable to being on the wrong end of the score sheet.

LOS ANGELES is 4-13 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season and is is 1-7 ATS  L/8 when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) this season.

Sharks are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. Pacific.Kings are 1-6 in their last 7 vs. a team with a winning side.Kings are 3-8 in their last 11 vs. Pacific.

Play on the San Jose Sharks to win on the money line

Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Jan 15, 2018
Pacers vs Jazz
Jazz
-4 -108 at 5Dimes
Lost
$108.0
Play Type: Premium

Utah has not played very inspired basketball of late losing 14 of their L/18 and probably don't inspire many bettors, but they are in a favorable spot here tonight against a tired Indiana side off a desert win vs Phoenix last night. With Indiana now on tired legs and now having to compete in the high altitudes of Salt Lake City the fatigue factor will become key to us laying the short lumber with the desperate home side that is well rested. Pacers are 15-31-1 ATS in their last 47 games playing on 0 days rest.

The Jazz are 8-2 SU L/10 at home in this series, and won and covered the most recent two meetings here. Jazz are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. Eastern Conference.Jazz are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 2 days rest


NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (INDIANA) - after 2 or more consecutive wins, playing on back-to-back days are 39-74 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 66% for bettors on the blind.

Play on the Utah Jazz to cover

Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Jan 15, 2018
Lakers vs Grizzlies
UNDER 203 -110 Lost
$110.0
Play Type: Premium

The Lakers  have had success of late and are on a 4 game win streak thanks to playing  much better defensive hoops and held the last three opponents to an average of 89.3 points. Tonight against a Memphis side that has only average 97.8 ppg in offensive production at home, I'm betting on them keeping their foes under wraps again. It must also be noted that the Lakers have failed to eclipse the 99 point plateau in 5 of their L/7 in slower paced affairs behind the 29th ranked offensive rating in the league. Meanwhile, Memphis is off scoring 78 points last time out in a hard fought defensive game in Denver (87-78), and I'm betting that Fizdale and company stick to this type of physcial hoops again, as they revert back to a slower paced game plan as they search for consistency.

Memphis is ranked 30th in Pace in the NBA while their  offense ranks 29th.

Under is 5-0 in Lakers last 5 games following a ATS win.

MEMPHIS is 15-7 UNDER L/22 versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season. MEMPHIS is 10-1 UNDER  L/11 versus up-tempo teams averaging 88 or more shots/game - 2nd half of the season .MEMPHIS is 16-5 UNDER in home games this season with a combined average of 198.5 ppg scored.

NBA Home teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (MEMPHIS) - a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) against a struggling  defensive team (102 PPG or more), after a combined score of 175 points or less are 39-10 UNDER L/21 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for totals bettors.

Play on the UNDER

Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Jan 15, 2018
Heat vs Bulls
Bulls
+1 +100 at 5Dimes
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

Call me crazy but I'm going to stand in front of the Miami Heat freight train tonight. Yes, they have played well of late and won 7 straight games, but they are on tired legs after playing last night in South Florida vs the Bucks  and then had to catch a red eye here to Chicago to play the Bulls , in an afternoon affair. This should have both discombobulated and exhausted ,which obviously makes them vulnerable to a down performance vs a team that is playing only their 2nd game in 5 nights.

CHICAGO is 8-0 ATS   against Southeast division opponents this season.CHICAGO is 10-1 ATS when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days this season.CHICAGO is 8-0 ATS  after 2 or more consecutive wins this season. Bulls HC Hoiberg is 13-3 ATS L/16  in home games versus horrible foul drawing teams - attempting 21  or less free throws/game.

NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MIAMI) - after 2 or more consecutive wins, playing on back-to-back days are 39-74 ATS L/5 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Road teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (MIAMI) - after allowing 85 points or less against opponent after allowing 100 points or more 5 straight games are 31-7 SU L/21 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Chicago to cover

Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Jan 15, 2018
Bucks vs Wizards
Bucks
+5½ -103 at 5Dimes
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

Both Washington and Milwaukee are very inconsistent sides, despite of having a lot of talent , and today I expect they will partake in a closely contested affair , with the advantage going to the visitor getting points. Washington is a weak favorite as is evident by  their  4-15 ATS  record  as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season and 8-21 ATS record overall  chalk this season. I know the Wizards have played well of late but they don't deal well with success , as they are just  1-8 ATS  after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games this season. Meanwhile, the Bucks are off 2 straight losses, but it must be noted that  HC Kidd is 19-4 ATS  L/23 after 2 straight losses by 10 points or more . I know the Bucks played last night, but they are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games playing on no rest.Bucks are also 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.

Wizards are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall and have failed to cover 4 straight at home.

NBA Road underdogs (MILWAUKEE) - after 2 straight losses by 10 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 215 points or more 2 straight games 60-33 ATS L/21 seasons for a 69% conversion rate.

Play on Milwaukee to cover

Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Jan 15, 2018
Knicks vs Nets
Knicks
+2½ -105 at 5Dimes
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

The Knicks have recently struggled on the road, but I'm not sure we should look at this as a true road game, as their will be plenty of Knicks fans in attendance here in Brooklyn to his afternoon.  Last night  New York choked and gave  up a 14-point lead in the fourth quarter and suffered a 123-118 overtime. I know the Knicks lost, but watching excerpts of that game, showed me this team still has the ability to take down any team in the league , and tonight I expect they will turn the trick vs a side that they matchup well against according to my power rankings. The Knicks  Tim Hardaway Jr. scored 25 points off the bench Sunday and  is looking strong and will make his 3rd start after coming back from injury and should be now in top form as the rust  has worn off. I'm betting on him to be the catalyst in a Knicks cover .

Nets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.Knicks are 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings.

NBA Road teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (NEW YORK) - off a road loss by 10 points or more, well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days are 28-7 L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate.

NBA Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (BROOKLYN) - terrible defensive team - allowing 103+ points/game on the season against opponent after scoring 55 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games are 52-91 ATS L/21 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 64% for bettors on the blind.

Play on the NY Knicks to cover

Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Jan 15, 2018
Warriors vs Cavs
Cavs
+6 -115 at Bovada
Lost
$115.0
Play Type: Premium

The struggling  Cleveland Cavaliers'   prepare to host the rival Golden State Warriors on national TV on Monday. The Cavs have played uninspired ball of late losing 7 of their L/9 overall, but now with the defending league champs in town , I'm betting on them finally coming out here and showing us their ability to play a complete game. Last time out they built a 22 point lead before losing a 97-95 decision to Indiana. That was a humbling experience for this talented group, and now with redemption at hand vs what is arguably the best hoops team in the world, they should be ready leave everything on the floor. When these teams  played on Christmas Day this season, the Cavs actually looked comfortable, and played well in a hard fought close 97-92 loss, and are more than capable of a cover here and SU upset vs a Warriors side on tired legs as they play their 3rd game in 4 nights and 7th in 11 days.

Cavaliers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.Cavaliers are 5-2-2 ATS in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.Home team is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings.Warriors are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

NBA Road teams vs. the money line (GOLDEN STATE) - average defensive team (43.5-45.5%) against a poor defensive team (45.5-47.5%) after 42+ games, average ball handling team (14.5-16.5 TO's) against a good ball handling team (14.5 TO's or less) are 14-39 SU L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 74% for bettors.

NBA Home underdogs (CLEVELAND) - off a upset loss as a favorite, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season are 60-29 ATS L/21 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Cleveland Cavaliers to cover

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Jan 15, 2018
Oklahoma State vs Baylor
Oklahoma State
+6 -110 at betonline
Lost
$110.0
Play Type: Premium

Two  Big 12 rivals with identical 11-4 records go head to had tonight in a battle that I'm betting will be closely contested.  Oklahoma State Mike Boyton Jr. is a fine coach and despite of losing 3 of their L/4 conference tilts the Cowboys are a side that should not be underestimated getting points in the underdog role. In two meetings last year these teams, took part in hard fought affairs , and despite of the Pokes losing both contests they were close via a 3 and 4 point deficits. Also with Baylor looking ahead to Kansas in their next game, the Boyz get a break as they catch their Baylor opponents looking ahead.

Take the points with Oklahoma State

SERVICE BIO

Experience & Awards

I have been wagering professionally on sports and horse racing for 30 years. 

My picks have been documented for 18 years.  I have earned numerous top 10 Basketball and Football finishes.  

My college football picks have profited in 16 of my last 17 seasons. In 2011 I went 68% for the year.

I was the 2009 NFL Handicapper of the Year in 2009  in a prestigous event.  I won the Ultimate Football NFL Championship in 2006.  In 2014 I overcame a slow start to finish 59-32 65%!  

I have been an NBA World Champion with 7 winning seasons the last 8 years.  

I also continue to beat the College Hoops book makers with a high volume attack on a yearly basis. 

Handicapping Approach

I have a firm belief in my systems.  There is not a sport I feel I can not beat.  

My handicapping can be best referred to as the 'The Smart Money Approach". I leave no stone unturned.  I have a large database of information and statistics.  I also take into consideration injuries, current and historical trends, and form.  I also factor in the weather, surface conditions, and line movement.

Sports Betting Is An Investment

Many gamblers offer causal explanations for long runs of good and bad performance.  The same is true of financial analysts.  The records of bettors and investors show the same variable successes and failures. 

Both investment opportunities show significant variables and both can give the investor an advantage.  You need to do the proper research to consider all the facts. If you do so a long term profit is more than attainable.

I think sports betting is even better than the stock market.  The investor/bettor has much more control over his funds. You can take a short break, and almost always know your bankroll has not been untouched.

In the markets you are leaving your 401K and other mutual investments in the hands of a volatile marketplace. Plus, you are being torched for huge handling fees by brokers on individual investments. These fees would make sports book managers drool.

I am not saying it is easy making a living from sports betting. But, the small percent who do consistently beat the books have a much better rate of return than that of any market investor!

This is the outlook I have on every wager I place in the sports wagering markets. I take my portfolio very seriously!

Money Management

To be a successful and profitable sports bettor you must always have a long term goal. Set that standard before you begin.  You need to set aside a fairly substantial bankroll.

If you want to be conservative you would wager no more than 1-2% of your bankroll per game.  No more than 3% on the best bets.

This might seem a little on the low side.  But, this is a long and turbulent battle with the books.  You will be happy that you practiced good money management and frugality.

Here are some additional guidelines I recommend.

1. Shop for your best possible lines (rogue lines) from the most reputable sources.

2. Stay disciplined and do not stray from recommended bankroll allocation on individual wagers. Chasing your wagers never a good idea.

3. Always keep in mind that your bankroll is your life line.  It must be treated the same way you would treat finances allocated for any business venture.

4. Buy off the hook on key numbers.

5. Understanding the importance and the art of middling.

6. Keep a record of all your wagers and results and use them as part of over all statistical data base.

These are some important factors that will help you in your quest for long term profits.

I leave you with a thought from the late great Jimmy the Greek. The house does not beat the player, it just gives him the opportunity to beat himself.

*Almost all selections have the same allocated bankroll %(which equals 1 betting unit). Strong selections will see our single game wagers doubled.  These plays are rated as GENERALS CLUB selections.

Edit Me!