#955/956 ASA PLAY ON Under 8 Runs – Philadelphia Phillies at San Diego Padres, Friday at 9:40 PM ET - We are projecting sleepy bats here for these teams. Both teams were on the road yesterday and now meet on the west coast. The Phillies were in Cincinnati yesterday and the Padres faced the Rockies in Colorado with that series also wrapping up yesterday. Now you have a great pitching match-up here and neither club likely to hit well given this scheduling situation. The Padres lineup would certainly rather be hitting again at Coors Field than facing red hot Aaron Nola here. The Phillies hurler has been in top form for weeks now. Nola has been charged with only 5 earned runs on 14 hits in the 27 innings over his last 4 starts while also piling up strikeouts! He is not the only hot starter entering this one. Don't be fooled by Joe Musgrove's season numbers this year! He has been much better in April and had a tougher start versus Cubs but gave up only 7 earned runs in 19 innings in his other 3 starts this month. Musgrove entered this season with a 31-19 record and an ERA just a little north of 3.00 in his 3 seasons with the Padres. He is a solid starting pitcher to say the least! San Diego off a high-scoring loss at Colorado but, even at hitter-friendly Coors Field, the Padres scored an average of only 4 runs in the first 3 games of the series. The Phillies have averaged only 3.3 runs per game in going 1-2 last 3 games. Now, in a park that is not nearly as hitter-friendly as Coors Field or Great American Ballpark (where Phillies just were), both lineups struggles resume here. If you like good old-fashioned pitchers duels, this one appears to have all the ingredients to be one of those without a doubt. Our computer math model is projecting 5 to 6 runs here and even if it gets to 7 that is still a winning ticket for us. We are going with the Under in this one.

ASA top play on 10* Indiana Pacers -5.5 vs Milwaukee Bucks, 5:30 PM ET - If we examine the big picture for the Bucks, it’s not as rosy as one might think. They are already paying two previous coaches a ton of money and are now stuck with Doc Rivers who is vastly overrated. The roster when healthy is a good one, but without Giannis (30PPG, 11.5RPG, 6.5APG, 1.1BPG) they have too many deficiencies on both ends of the court. There is a good chance Khris Middleton doesn’t play tonight, or if he does, he will not be close to 100%. The young Pacers were clearly nervous for Game 1 as it was a first-time playoff experience for many on the roster and it showed in a 109-94 loss. Then in Game 2 they settled in and dominated the Bucks in the second half for a 125-108 victory. Back at home we expect the home crowd to be electric and the young Pacers will feed off that energy. Indiana was 26-15 SU at home this season with the 6th best home court differential of +6.8PPG. They closed out the regular season with 5 straight home wins, 4 of which were against other Playoff teams. Milwaukee was a below average road team this season with a 18-22 SU record and a negative average Margin of Victory of minus -1.1PPG. When coming off a loss the Bucks are 13-19-1 ATS this season which is the second worst spread record in the league in that situation. Indiana is 5-2 SU versus the Bucks this season and 4 of those wins have come by 9+ points. The Bucks have no answer for Siakam who torched Milwaukee for 36 and 37 points in the first two games. Easy call here with Indiana in a double-digit win.

#917 ASA PLAY ON Los Angeles Dodgers -145 over Toronto Blue Jays, Saturday at 3:07 PM ET - Two teams trending opposite directions and because Kikuchi has solid numbers on the hill for Toronto, line value is available to take the Dodgers with Glasnow on the mound.  Dodgers on the road so the money line is kept to a moderate level here.  LA has been piling up runs while the Jays are struggling to score.  After yesterday's 12-2 slaughter in favor of Los Angeles, the Blue Jays have lost 4 straight games and 5 of last 6.  In those 5 games they scored an average of 2 runs per game!  One was a 5-inning game yet still we are talking about 10 runs scored in 4 and a 1/2 games if one gets technical about it.  As for the Dodgers, they have won 5 straight games and scored an average of 7.8 runs in those 5 victories.  Huge hitting edge here as Los Angeles has been the better team at the plate all season long already.  Also, LA is 7-3 versus lefty starters this season and Toronto is 10-13 versus righty starters this season.  Kikuchi has been solid this season but Glasnow has been even stronger overall.  Glasnow had one tough start but has been phenomenal overall in the other 4 outings including his last 2 sandwiched around the one rare, tough outing.  Those two starts saw Glasnow allow just 10 hits while striking out 24 in 15 scoreless innings.  The Dodgers are loaded with hitters who have had success against Kikuchi while the Blue Jays only have Guerrero and Springer as the two guys with some success against Glasnow and both those guys have had early season struggles thus far.  Lay it with the road team here!  Dodgers get the call in this one Saturday.  

ASA top play on Boston Celtics -9 vs Miami Heat, 6 PM ET - We are obviously laying a premium price here with the Celtics, but our numbers suggest a double digit win by the visitor. Miami won Game 2, but it took a historically great 3-point shooting night to notch that W. The Heat set franchise playoff records with the number of 3’s made (23) and 3PT% at 53%. We are expecting a sharp regression in Game 3 as the Celtics have the 4th best 3PT% defense in the NBA allowing just 35.4%. Miami is 12th in the league in 3PT% at 37.2%. Boston also had two starters play one of their worst statistical games of the season with Jrue Holiday and Porzingis struggling. The Celtics are 14-4 SU coming off a loss this season, which doesn’t translate when they are favored by 9.5 points, but their average MOV in those games was +12.3PPG, which does. Miami was slightly better than average at home this season with a 23-19 SU record, but they had a low +/- of +2.4PPG. Boston was the best road team in the NBA this season at 27-14 SU with a +7.5PPG average point differential. The Celtics won on this court twice this season already and one of those wins came by 33-points. Lay it with a motivated Celtics team.